And comes up with an ideal start list with the aid of hindsight.
Not withstanding the fact that my capability with statistics is rubbish, here is my analysis of the hindsight start list: This is the start list to (in theory) get a perfect handicap finish, based on what everyone actually did on Saturday. I've not adjusted this start list for the quicker than expected finish time. So its already less than perfect and Roger would win again. Helen Elmore gives the median variation for real time - estimated. 16 min 31 seconds under estimate. There are a few mathematical anomalies, as Clive and Ian did not make it round the course. There was no value in manually readjusting for those who had a bad day, as that is entirely subjective. Given the level of complaints I had this year, its interesting for me to look as this version, because I wouldn't have been able to present this prior to the event and feel confident in its accuracy. I hope no one is offended by me passing comment on individuals.
Paul Keen is an outstanding runner. I'd never dare send him off there. Eoin has been running really well in the last year; Work is obviously taking its toll on him. I don't think anyone would have felt I was being fair setting John Gunnee off ahead of Kenny and not so far behind me. But then I do know my original estimate for me was pretty spot on, and possibly a little generous given current form (in the main). Good job I had a shocking day! Mr Paxman is climbing the order again after a couple of low key years. Phil Crowson is…just Phil Crowson. Paul Walwyn has many enemies. He was much reported to me as getting away too lightly. And so it proves. I should have kept on shoving him down the start list. His running is going from strength to strength. Rob Moore also has enemies and I duly shunted him along, but not enough it would seem. Very definitely running well. He put a lot of time into me at Pendle and couple of weeks ago; I had an inkling he might win. Nicky was harshly punished for her generosity in setting the course and organising the race. Willy played a blinder with a long game of "oh! I've got a wooden leg." Tim on the other hand, I wasn't going to fall for a second time. Paul Fauset had a great run. I was anxious not to be felt to be unreasonably punishing him. I'll fear that less in future. Dave Lund continues to climb the order, although there's not anywhere much for him to go the handicap any more.